GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 17-02-20 TO 21-02-20

ROBERT SHILLER IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 17-02-20 TO 21-02-20 WAS RATHER BORING. BOTH INDECES WENT UP AND DOWN, DURING THE WEEK, BUT ONLY WITHIN A NARROW FRAME. AS THERE IS NOTHING SPECIAL, I DECIDED TO TELL YOU SOMETHING ABOUT A BOOK I’M CURRENTLY READING. IT HAS THE TITLE “IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE”, AND IS WRITTEN BY NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATE, PROFESSOR ROBERT SHILLER. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THE BOOK FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS ARTICLE. Continue reading “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 17-02-20 TO 21-02-20”

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 10-02-20 TO 14-02-20

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 10-02-20 TO 14-02-20 ENDED A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN IT STARTED. (SEE https://gse.com.gh/#1537892250859-9ee02099-32e0)                        BUT SHOULD THAT CHANGE OUR OPINION ABOUT THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT? Continue reading “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 10-02-20 TO 14-02-20”

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 03-02-20 TO 07-02-20

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 03-02-20 TO 07-02-20 WILL THIS TIME INCLUDE MONDAY, 10TH OF FEBRUARY, 2020. OBVIOUSLY, THE OVERVIEW SHOWS THAT THE RECENT STABILISATION OF THE FINANCIAL MARKETS REMAINS ON COURSE. SEE: https://gse.com.gh/#1537892250859-9ee02099-32e0  Continue reading “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 03-02-20 TO 07-02-20”

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 27-01-20 TO 31-01-20

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 27-01-20 TO 31-01-20 SAW BOTH INDECES GO INTO MINUS FOR THE WEEK AGAIN. THE COMPOSITE IS 1.99% LOWER FOR THE YEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE FINANCIAL SLIPPED TO  MINUS 0.85% FOR THE YEAR, IS THAT A CHANGE TO THE WORSE AGAIN FOR THE YEAR? Continue reading “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 27-01-20 TO 31-01-20”

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 20-01-20 TO 24-01-20

THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 20-01-20 TO 24-01-20 CONFIRMED WHAT I WROTE L AST WEEK. IT STABILISED, AND SEEMS TO SLOWLY MOVE UP THE LADDER OF SUCCESS.

THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IS LEADING THIS STABILISATION. WE CAN SAY THAT, BECAUSE THE FINANCIAL SECTOR HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY. YEAR-TO-DATE (YTD), THE FINANCIAL INDEX ROSE 1.12% (SEE https://gse.com.gh/#1537892250859-9ee02099-32e0 ).

ALTHOUGH THE COMPOSITE IS STILL IN MINUS – 0.37% – WE CAN ALSO SEE A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT HERE. THE VOLATILITY IS NOT SO EXCESSIVE THAT THE DANGER OF AN ABRUPT DOWNTURN IS EMINENT. (VOLATILITY IS THE LIABILITY TO CHANGE RAPIDLY AND UNPREDICTABLY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WORSE.) WE CAN EXPECT THE ALSO THE COMPOSITE WILL BE IN THE POSITIVE AREA BY THE END OF THIS WEEK.

THIS POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE GHANAIAN STOCK MARKET GOES HAND IN HAND WITH MOODY’S JUDGMENT OF THE GHANAIAN ECONOMY. THE RATING AGENCY ON THE 24TH OF JANUARY CHANGED THE OUTLOOK FOR GHANA FROM STABLE TO POSITIVE. https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Ghana-s-economy-at-all-time-best-in-a-decade-Moodys-Ratings-847717

THE INTERESTING ISSUE IN THIS STATEMENT IS THAT MOODY’S SEES MORE FISCAL IMPROVEMENT UNDER THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR THE MEDIUM TERM. THE RATING AGENCY ALSO SEES AN IMPROVEMENT IN MACROECONOMIC STABILITY. IN ALL, MOODY’S SEES AN IMPROVEMENT OR AT LEAST POSITIVE PERSPECTIVE IN MOST MACROECONOMIC DATA IN THE LAST YEARS.

MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEVELOPMENT ON STOCK EXCHANGES ARE NOT ALWAYS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. BUT THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT BOTH ARE RELATED TO SOME EXTENT. THIS IS BECAUSE THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IS AN INTEGRAL PART OF EVERY ECONOMY. CONSEQUENTLY, POSITIVE MACROECONOMIC DATA WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE STOCK MARKET. ON THE OTHER HAND, OF COURSE, A POSITIVE STOCK MARKET ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT.

THEREFORE, I AM SURE THAT THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 20-01-20 TO 24-01-20 IS THE STARTING POINT. THE STOCK MARKET WILL DEVELOP POSITIVELY THROUGHOUT THE NEXT MONTHS AND THE WHOLE YEAR. I WILL FOLLOW THE WAY IT TAKES EVERY WEEK ON GHANA RESEARCH.

STAY TUNED!

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 13-01-20 TO 17-01-20

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 13-01-20 TO 17-01-20 CONFIRMED GENERALLY WHAT I SAID LAST WEEK. IT SEEMS THAT IT HAS FOUND ITS BASE BY THE END OF LAST YEAR. THIS IS A BASE ON WHICH A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN GROW.

BOTH INDEXES – THE COMPOSITE AND THE FINANCIAL – ARE STILL A LITTLE BIT IN MINUS FOR THE YEAR. FOR THE COMPOSITE, IT IS 0.74%, AND FOR THE FINANCIAL 0.58% (SEE https://gse.com.gh AND CLICK ON “INDEX PERFORMANCE”). THAT SEEMS A LITTLE BIT DISAPPOINTING AT FIRST SIGHT.

BUT WE HAVE TO CONSIDER THAT WE COME FROM A VERY BAD YEAR. THIS NEEDS A TIME OF STABILISATION FIRST OF ALL. IT WOULDN’T BE HEALTHY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GSE, IF THE INDEXES WOULD JUMP UP EXTREMELY.

FOR MY UNDERSTANDING, THE VOLATILITY IN BOTH INDEXES IS STILL A LITTLE BIT TOO MUCH EVEN. ON THURSDAY, COMPOSITE AND FINANCIAL WERE NEAR TO GO POSITIVE FOR THE YEAR. INSTEAD, ON FRIDAY THEY WENT DOWN AGAIN.

BUT THAT SHOULDN’T BOTHER US TOO MUCH. FACT IS THAT THERE IS A STABILISATION FACTOR WHICH WE HAVEN’T SEEN THROUGHOUT THE LAST YEAR. THAT MIGHT ALSO BE DUE TO THE – HOPEFULLY – GROWING BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IN THE COUNTRY.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH, WE WILL SEE WHETHER THIS TREND WILL GO ON. BY THAT TIME, THE JANUARY MEETING OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE (MPC) OF THE BANK OF GHANA WILL BE OVER. PARALLEL TO THAT, THE MPC WILL ISSUE THE SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DATA FOR GHANA. GHANA RESEARCH WILL – AS USUAL -EXAMINE THESE DATA IN A THREE ARTICLE SERIES.

I BELIEVE THAT THE TIME HAS COME WHEN THE ECONOMY IN GHANA BEARS THE FIRST FRUITS OF THE EFFORTS OF THE GOVERNMENT. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE ECONOMY WILL ALSO REFLECT ON THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE. I’M EVEN PREDICTING THAT THE CREDIT VOLUME TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR WILL INCREASE. THIS WILL ACCOUNT FOR THE BUSINESS AS WELL AS THE CONSUMPTION SECTOR. AN INCREASE IN CREDIT VOLUME WILL LEAD TO MORE BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN THE COUNTRY. CONSEQUENTLY, INCREASED BUSINESS ACTIVITY WILLTHEN PROBABLY TO MORE EMPLOYMENT AND MORE CONSUMPTION.

AS YOU SEE, I’M RATHER OPTIMISTIC IN VIEW OF THE ECONOMY IN GHANA. THIS WILL ALSO REFLECT ON THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE IN FUTURE.

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 13-01-20 TO 17-01-20 IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF GHANA FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS LOOKS BRIGHT.

STAY TUNED!

 

 

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE – BACK TO THE FUTURE?

SOME TIME AGO, THE GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WAS ONE OF THE BEST IN AFRICA. LAST YEAR, IT DROPPED, AND DROPPED, AND DROPPED… IN 2020, HAS THE TIME COME NOW WHEN WE CAN SAY “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE – BACK TO THE FUTURE”? Continue reading “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE – BACK TO THE FUTURE?”