CORONA VIRUS ALONE – OR IS THERE MORE?

THE THREE MAIN US-AMERICAN STOCK INDICES HAVE THE MOST TERRIBLE WEEK SINCE THE GREAT RECESSION 1929 FF. MANY PEOPLE THINK IT IS THE CORONA VIRUS THAT PUTS FEARS INTO INVESTORS’ MINDS. BUT IS IT ONLY THE CORONA VIRUS ALONE – OR IS THERE MORE?

NO DOUBT THE CORONA VIRUS PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN THE CRASH THAT HIT US-AMERICAN INDICES IN THIS WEEK. IF YOU LOOK AT INVESTING WEBSITES LIKE INVESTOPEDIA (https://www.investopedia.com/), YOU WILL SEE THAT MANY US-AMERICAN CONPANIES COMPLAIN. OBVIOUSLY, THE CORONA VIRUS INTERRUPTED THE SUPPLY CHAINS FOR PRODUCING THEIR MERCHANDISE AND SERVICES. MANY AMERICAN FIRMS GET THEIR SUPPLIES FROM CHINA AND OTHER EAST-ASIAN COUNTRIES. THEREFORE, IT IS NO MIRACLE THAT THEIR EARNINGS AND PROFIT FORECASTS FOR 2020 GO SOUTHWARD. ONE RESEARCH DEPARTMENT OF A GLOBAL BANK EVEN BELIEVES THAT THERE WON’T BE ANY POSITIVE EARNINGS RESULTS AT ALL IN 2020.

BUT IS IT ONLY THE CORONA VIRUS THAT CONTRIBUTES TO THIS OBVIOUS STOCK MARKET CRASH IN THE UNITED STATES? (BESIDES, OTHER STOCK MARKETS WORLDWIDE ALSO WENT DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. HERE, OTHER FACTORS BESIDE THE VIRUS CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNFALLS. BUT, IN MY OPINION, THEY ARE DIFFERENT THAT IN THE U.S.A. IN THIS ARTICLE, I CONCENTRATE ON THE SITUATION IN THE U.S.A.)

IN MY OPINION, THERE IS AT LEAST ONE MORE OTHER REASON BESIDE THE VIRUS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT DOWNFALL. THE U.S.-AMERICAN STOCKS ARE OFTEN OVERPRICED. SIMPLY, WE SEE THAT, E.G., IN THE FACT THAT SINCE YEARS, WARREN BUFFET’S BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY DID NOT FIND ANY COMPANY TO BUY.

WARREN BUFFET PREFERS TO BUY COMPANIES WITH A HIGHER INTRINSIC VALUE THAN THEIR PRICE. WE DEFINE INTRINSIC VALUE AS:

Intrinsic value is a measure of what an asset is worth. This measure is arrived at by means of an objective calculation or complex financial model, rather than using the currently trading market price of that asset.

In financial analysis this term is used in conjunction with the work of identifying, as nearly as possible, the underlying value of a company and its cash flow. In options pricing it refers to the difference between the strike price of the option and the current price of the underlying asset.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/

FOR BUFFETT, THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF A COMPANY MUST BE HIGHER THAN THE PRICE HE PAYS FOR IT.

AND INVESTORS OVERPRICED THE U.S.-AMERICAN STOCK MARKETS EXTENSIVELY. THESE ARE ESPECIALLY COMPANIES WITH RELATIONS TO THE DIGITAL AGE, THE SO-CALLED GROWTH COMPANIES. WE MUST SEE THIS IN OPPOSITE TO VALUE COMPANIES – COMPANIES BUFFETT WOULD BUY.

MANY COMPANIES ON THE US STOCK MARKETS DON’T EVEN MAKE A PROFIT. THEY GROW AND GROW AND GROW, BUT THEIR DEBTS ALSO GROW AND GROW AND GROW. IN MY EYES, THIS IS NOT HEALTHY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF PROFIT DEPENDS MOSTLY ON ADVERTISEMENT SALES.

THEREFORE, I BELIEVE THAT THE AMERICAN STOCK MARKET DOES NOT ONLY SUFFER FROM THE CORONA VIRUS. SURELY, AN ADDITIONAL POINT IS AN ESCESSIVE OVERPRICING OF AMERICAN COMPANIES, NOT BACKED BY ENOUGH ASSETS.

CORONA VIRUS ALONE – OR IS THERE MORE? OBVIOUSLY THERE IS MORE THAN THE EYE CAN SEE.

 

 

IS GHANA TORN BETWEEN GOLD AND OIL?

THE “GOLDSTREET” BUSINESS NEWSPAPER TODAY REPORTS THAT GHANA BENEFITS FROM A SURGE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD. TO READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE, VISIT: https://goldstreetbusiness.com/business/ghana-set-to-benefit-from-gold-price-surge/ BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, OIK PRICES ARE GOING SOUTHWARDS. IS GHANA TORN BETWEEN GOLD AND OIL? Continue reading “IS GHANA TORN BETWEEN GOLD AND OIL?”

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 17-02-20 TO 21-02-20

ROBERT SHILLER IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE

GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 17-02-20 TO 21-02-20 WAS RATHER BORING. BOTH INDECES WENT UP AND DOWN, DURING THE WEEK, BUT ONLY WITHIN A NARROW FRAME. AS THERE IS NOTHING SPECIAL, I DECIDED TO TELL YOU SOMETHING ABOUT A BOOK I’M CURRENTLY READING. IT HAS THE TITLE “IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE”, AND IS WRITTEN BY NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATE, PROFESSOR ROBERT SHILLER. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THE BOOK FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS ARTICLE. Continue reading “GHANA STOCK EXCHANGE WEEK FROM 17-02-20 TO 21-02-20”

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 3

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Summary-of-Economic-Financial-Data-January-2020

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 3 DISCUSSES

— GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS,

— MONETARY INDICATORS,

— BANKING SECTOR INDICATORS, AND

— STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE.

ADDITIONAL, WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT PAYMENT SYSTEM DATA.

AS USUAL, YOU CAN DOWNLOAD BOTH BANK OF GHANA DOCUMENTS FROM THE TOP OF THIS ARTICLE. Continue reading “FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 3”

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 2

MPC-Press-Release-January-2020-4

Summary-of-Economic-Financial-Data-January-2020

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 2 DISCUSSES THE FOLLOWING SECTORS:

— FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES,

— COMMODITY PRICES, AND

— EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS. Continue reading “FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 2”

FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 1

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Summary-of-Economic-Financial-Data-January-2020

THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE (MPC) OF THE BANK OF GHANA (BoG) HELD ITS JANUARY MEETING LAST WEEK. AT THE END OF IT, THE BoG PUBLISHED THE SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA FOR GHANA/JANUARY 2020. THEY ALSO PUBLISHED THE MPC PRESS RELEASE CONCERNING THE MEETING. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD BOTH DOCUMENTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS ARTICLE. AS USUAL, I WILL DIVIDE THE OVERVIEW OF THE DATA INTO THREE ARTICLES. FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 1 DISCUSSES PRICE DEVELOPMENTS, REAL SECTOR INDICATORS, AND MONEY MARKET RATES. THE SECOND ARTICLE ON FRIDAY WILL DEAL WITH FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, COMMODITY PRICES, AND EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS. FINALLY, MONDAY’S THIRD ARTICLE IS FOR GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS, MONETARY INDICATORS, BANKING SECTOR INDICATORS, AND STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE. Continue reading “FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DATA GHANA JANUARY 2020 – 1”

BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 3

Summary_of_Economic__Financial-Data_November-2019

MPC-Press-Release-Nov.-2019

IN THE LAST PART OF MY ARTICLE SERIES – BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 3 – I DISCUSS

— MONETARY INDICATORS,

— BANK ING SECTOR INDICATORS, AND

— STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE.

AT THE END OF THIS ARTICLE, A CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK WILL FOLLOW. Continue reading “BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 3”

BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 2

MPC-Press-Release-Nov.-2019,

Summary_of_Economic__Financial-Data_November-2019

IN BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 2, I WILL DISCUSS FOUR SECTORS.

— FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES (INTERBANK),

— COMMODITY PRICES,

— EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS, AND

— GOVERNMENT FISCAL OPERATIONS.

AS USUAL, YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THE DOCUMENTS REFERRED TO FROM THE BEGINNING OF THIS ARTICLE. Continue reading “BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 2”

BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 1

MPC-Press-Release-Nov.-2019 Summary_of_Economic__Financial-Data_November-2019

Summary_of_Economic__Financial-Data_November-2019

BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 1

THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE (MPC) OF THE BANK OF GHANA (BOG) HELD ITS NOVEMBER MEETING LAST WEEKEND. IT ALSO PUBLISHED THE SUMMARY OF THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DATA FOR GHANA NOVEMBER 2019. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD BOTH DOCUMENTS FROM THE TOP OF THIS ARTICLE.

IN THE FIRST PART, I’LL COMMENT BRIEFLY ON THE PRESS RELEASE OF THE MPC. THEN I’LL DISCUSS PRICE DEVELOPMENTS, REAL SECTOR INDICATORS, AND MONEY MARKET RATES. Continue reading “BANK OF GHANA MPC NOVEMBER MEETING – PART 1”

WHAT PERSPECTIVE DOES THE BUDGET 2020 GIVE TO GHANA?

 

2020-Budget-Statement-and-Economic-Policy

WHAT PERSPECTIVE DOES THE BUDGET 2020 GIVE TO GHANA?

THAT IS THE QUESTION MOST GHANAIANS ASK THEMSELVES AFTER THE READING LAST WEEK.

NOW DON’T EXPECT FROM ME A COMPLETE ANALYSIS OF THE CA. 260 PAGES DOCUMENT – INCLUDED APPENDICES. YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THE WHOLE DOCUMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS ARTICL E.

BUT APART FROM LISTING THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE GOVERNMENT WITHIN THE LAST THREE YEARS, THE BUDGET IS FULL OF PROJECTS FOR 2020 AND BEYOND. BE IT THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE OR THE 1D1F INITIATIVE, ALL ARE VERY AMBITIOUS.

MOST OF THE ECONOMICAL DATA ARE POSITIVE AND IN LINE WITH THE RESEARCHES OF THE BANK OF GHANA. THE NEWEST IS THE CURRENT INFLATION RATE. AFTER THE REBASE OF THE UNDERLINED BASKET, THE RATE DECREASED FROM 7.8% TO 7.7% (SEE https://www.bog.gov.gh/) THIS IS ALREADY FURTHER BELOW THE INFLATION TARGET OF 8+/-2%.

THE GDP GROWTH IS SURELY WITHIN THE FORECAST OF INSTITUTIONS LIKE THE IMF OR THE WORLD BANK. SOME ARTICLES IN THE GHANAIAN PRESS DOUBT THAT TO ACHIEVE A TARGET OF 6.8% IS REALISTIC. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE INSTITUTIONS HAVE ALREADY DOWNGRADED THE ESTIMATE. THEREFORE, 6.8% GDP GROWTH SEEMS TO BE REALISTIC.

THERE ARE SOME COMPONENTS THAT MIGHT GIVE SOME PEOPLE A LITTLE HEADACHE. ONE OF THEM IS THE DEPRECIATION OF THE CEDI. AFTER SOME DAYS OF STABILISATION, THE CEDI LOST SOME GROUND AGAIN IN THE LAST DAYS.

NEVERTHELESS, I DON’T SEE ANY REASON TO PANIC RIGHT NOW. THE GOVERNMENT HAS INTRODUCED SEVERAL INITIATIVES THAT WILL MAKE SURE THAT WE MUST IMPORT LESS PRODUCTS. OF COURSE, THAT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO PROTESTS OF SOME IMPORTERS. EVEN THE GOVERNMENT CANNOT MAKE EVERYONE HAPPY. BUT PROJECTS LIKE PLANTING FOR FOOD AND JOBS WILL LEAD TO MORE DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF THINGS THAT ARE NEEDED HERE. THIS, IN TURN, WILL LEAD TO LESS EXPENDITURE OF FOREIGN CURRENCY, ESPECIALLY THE US-DOLLAR. AND THIS WILL SURELY STABILISE THE LOCAL CURRENCY.

FURTHERMORE, THE BFT ONLINE PUBLISHED AN ARTICLE TODAY. IN THIS ARTICLE, THE DIRECTOR OF ISSER EXPECTS THE GOVERNMENT TO MISS THE FISCAL DEFICIT TARGET. https://thebftonline.com/2019/economy/its-likely-govt-will-slip-in-deficit-target-prof-quartey/

THIS TARGET STANDS AT 4.7%, AND THE TARGET IS BASED ON THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILTY ACT. THE DIRECTOR BASES HIS OPINION ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT 2020 IS AN ELECTION YEAR. THIS, SO THE DIRECTOR, WILL PUT THE GOVERNMENT UNDER FISCAL PRESSURE. HE THINKS THAT IT WAS ALWAYS LIKE THAT IN ELECTION YEARS.

I REALLY DON’T KNOW WHY IT MUST BE LIKE THAT BECAUSE IT WAS ALWAYS LIKE THAT. THE GOVERNMENT IS NOW BOUND TO THE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY ACT. WAIT AND SEE WHETHER THE GOVERNMENT KEEPS TO THE LEGAL BASIS. IF NOT, YOU CAN CRITICISE THE GOVERNMENT LATER.

I SEE THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FOR THE GOVERNMENT IN THE REVENUE GENERATION. HERE, THE GOBERNMENT WANTS TO BROADEN THE TAX BASE. THIS IS A GOOD START, AND WILL HOPEFULLY BE SUCCESSFUL.

SOME DISTRICTS HAVE ALREADY BOUGHT A SOFTWARE THAT TAXES MONIES AT THE SOURCE, IF THIS SOFTWARE IS IMPLEMENTED SUCCESSFULLY, IT WILL HELP TO CONTROL REVENUE COLLECTION AT THE BASE.

IN ALL, I AM OF THE OPINION THAT THE GOVERNMENT IS ON THE RIGHT PATH TO TRANSFORM THE ECONOMY. NOW IT’S THE TIME FOR THE POPULACE NOT ONLY TO BENEFIT FROM THIS TRANSFORMATION. GOVERNMENT, NO MATTER FROM WHICH PARTY, CANNOT DO ANYTHING WITHOUT THE SUPPORT OF THE PEOPLE.

WHAT PERSPECTIVE DOES THE BUDGET 2020 GIVE TO GHANA? THE BUDGET WILL ONLY GIVE THE PERSPECTIVE THAT YOU SUPPORT.

IT IS YOUR COUNTRY!