IMF GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OCTOBER 2019

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OCTOBER 2019

IN THE IMF GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OCTOBER 2019, THE ORGANISATION GENERALLY PAINTS A NEGATIVE PICTURE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. (YOU CAN DOWNLOAD THE REPORT ABOVE, AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS ARTICLE).

THE INSTITUTION IS MORE OR LESS A “BANK FOR COUNTRIES”. IT IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES. SCENARIOS LIKE THE USA-CHINA TRADE WAR AND BREXIT HAVE THEIR IMPACT ON THEIF GDP GROWTH RATES. THESE RATES USUALLY DO NOT GO BEYOND 2 PRTCENT FOR 2019, AND ALSO NOT FOR 2020.

A SLIGHTLY BETTER SITUATION IS ELABORATED FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES. BUT HERE, WE MUST ALSO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT KINDS OF ECONOMIES. ONE GROUP IS THE ONE LIKE NIGERIA WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENY ON ONE COMMODITY – OIL. IN THESE COUNTRIES, THE GDP GROWTH WILL NOY BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES. COUNTRIES WITH MORE DIVERSIFIED ECONOMIES – IN OPPOSITE – HAVE A HIGHER GDP GROWTH RATE.

ESPECIALLY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, THE SITUATION TS VERY COMPLEX. MANY COUNTRIES HAVE A GDP GROWTH WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE AGGREGATE OF ADVANCED ECONOMIES. YOU CAN SEE THAT ON  THE MAP ON PAGE 15 OF THE REPORT.

GHANA IS NOT AMONG THESE COUNTRIES. GHANA’S ECONOMY IS – ALTHOUGH LIMITED -RATHER DIVERSIFIED. APART FROM OIL, THERE ARE OTHER COMMODITIES OF SATISFACTORY UP TO VERY MUCH IMPORTANCE. GOLD, COCOA, BAUXIT, AND OTHER ECONOMIES PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE FOR THE GHANAIAN ECONOMY. AND AS WE HAVE HEARD FROM THE IMF, COUNTRIES WITH A DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY ARE BETTER OFF.

NEVERTHELESS, THE IMF REVIEWS THE GDP GROWTH FOR GHANA DOWN BY 1.3% PER THE END OF DECEMBER 2019. THAT REFLECTS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF COMMODITY PRICES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS IS BECAUSE THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. THIS UNCERTAINTY, OF COURSE, ALSO AFFECTS GHANA. ALTHOUGH THIS OUTLOOK IS A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING, THE PERCEIVED GDP GROWTH FOR GHANA IS THIS FAR HIGHER THAN 7%. THE IMF EVEN ESTIMATES IT HIGHER THAN THE GOVERNMENT OF GHANA ITSELF. IT IS MUCH HIGHER THAN   THE AGGREGATE OF ADVANCED ECONOMIES. THIS YOU CAN AGAIN VERIFY THROUGH THE MAP ON PAGE 15 OF THE REPORT.

THEREFORE – TO SUSTAIN THE HIGH GDP GROWTH – THE ECONOMY IN GHANA MUST STILL BECOME MORE DIVERSIFIED. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR THE INDUSTRIALISATION. THE GOVERNMENT MUST MAKE IT A KEYPOINT IN THE DEVELOPMENT, AND IT HAS ALREADY INTRODUCED MEASURES TO DO SO. AS THE FIRST RWANDAN VOLKSWAGEN WENT OFF THE ASSEMBLY, THE GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO GHANA COMMENTED ON IT. HE SAID THAT SOON THE FIRST GHANAIAN VOLKSWAGEN WILL DO THE SAME.

THIS IS ONLY ONE EXAMPLE OF THE GOVERNMENT OF GHANA SUPPORTING INDUSTRIALISATION. IT WILL BE ONE STEP TOWARDS GHANA BECOMING A SUSTAINABLE MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRY.

I AM LOOKING INTO A POSITIVE ECONOMIC FUTURE. WHAT ABOUT YOU? SEND ME YOUR COMMENTS.

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